Exploring India's Energy Transition: A Future-focused Analysis of 12 Key Energy Services
A fresh approach to the Energy Transition
The issue of climate change has reached unprecedented levels of concern. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its 6th Assessment Report in 2022, following a previous report in 2014.
The release of the first part of the report in the summer of 2021 prompted United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres to label it a "Code Red for Humanity." Scientific evidence has unequivocally demonstrated that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is crucial to mitigating severe adverse effects on our way of life. However, achieving such a goal requires a complete paradigm shift, as greenhouse gas emissions must decline by 30-50% by 2030 and reach net-zero by mid-century. Unfortunately, progress in this regard has been slow.
On a global scale, the carbon intensity of energy use has remained stagnant across most sectors over the past two decades, with the exception of the power generation sector, which experienced a 15% reduction. Consequently, a monumental energy transition lies ahead of us.
Nonetheless, not all regions will face the same challenges during this transition. For instance, a rapidly developing economy like India must simultaneously pursue rapid economic growth, which necessitates secure and affordable energy, while transitioning away from fossil fuels. The manner in which India tackles this dual challenge will significantly shape its future energy system.
Furthermore, India is poised to become one of the dominant global economies in the 21st century, presenting astounding potential for development. Consequently, the decisions made today regarding the Indian energy system will not only impact India but will also reverberate throughout the world. In other words, due to the size of the Indian economy, every choice the country makes now will profoundly influence how some of the most urgent global challenges, particularly climate change, are resolved in the future.
However, there is a silver lining to this argument—the choices are yet to be made, and a "window of opportunity" exists. The purpose of this report is to make a positive contribution to the ongoing discussion. It diverges from other similar analyses in two significant ways.
Firstly, this report takes a long-term perspective by examining the evolution of the energy system from 2000 to 2070. Secondly, it places emphasis on energy services or energy demand. An energy system encompasses more than just the stocks and flows of energy, as commonly depicted; it represents the intricate network of various energy services, uses, and practices that impact a multitude of socio-technical systems.
These services are influenced by a range of environmental, economic, technological, institutional, and cultural factors. Importantly, these services are not necessarily directly tied to energy but are the outcomes of how we utilize energy—such as the operation of machines and appliances, the heating systems we employ, and the vehicles we drive.
While some of these energy services exist today, they can be significantly improved or transformed by modern technologies, and they will continue to evolve with technological advancements. Moreover, new energy services may emerge as a result of changes in the technological, economic, institutional, and cultural landscapes. Ultimately, fostering a transition from the current energy system to a new one necessitates a greater focus on these services. This entails understanding their inevitable development and assessing their potential contribution to achieving a secure, affordable, and net-zero energy system.
In this report, we delve into the detailed exploration of 12 such energy services and model their impact within India's future energy system.
The issue of climate change has reached unprecedented levels of concern. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published its 6th Assessment Report in 2022, following a previous report in 2014.
The release of the first part of the report in the summer of 2021 prompted United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres to label it a "Code Red for Humanity." Scientific evidence has unequivocally demonstrated that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius is crucial to mitigating severe adverse effects on our way of life. However, achieving such a goal requires a complete paradigm shift, as greenhouse gas emissions must decline by 30-50% by 2030 and reach net-zero by mid-century. Unfortunately, progress in this regard has been slow.
On a global scale, the carbon intensity of energy use has remained stagnant across most sectors over the past two decades, with the exception of the power generation sector, which experienced a 15% reduction. Consequently, a monumental energy transition lies ahead of us.
Nonetheless, not all regions will face the same challenges during this transition. For instance, a rapidly developing economy like India must simultaneously pursue rapid economic growth, which necessitates secure and affordable energy, while transitioning away from fossil fuels. The manner in which India tackles this dual challenge will significantly shape its future energy system.
Furthermore, India is poised to become one of the dominant global economies in the 21st century, presenting astounding potential for development. Consequently, the decisions made today regarding the Indian energy system will not only impact India but will also reverberate throughout the world. In other words, due to the size of the Indian economy, every choice the country makes now will profoundly influence how some of the most urgent global challenges, particularly climate change, are resolved in the future.
However, there is a silver lining to this argument—the choices are yet to be made, and a "window of opportunity" exists. The purpose of this report is to make a positive contribution to the ongoing discussion. It diverges from other similar analyses in two significant ways.
Firstly, this report takes a long-term perspective by examining the evolution of the energy system from 2000 to 2070. Secondly, it places emphasis on energy services or energy demand. An energy system encompasses more than just the stocks and flows of energy, as commonly depicted; it represents the intricate network of various energy services, uses, and practices that impact a multitude of socio-technical systems.
These services are influenced by a range of environmental, economic, technological, institutional, and cultural factors. Importantly, these services are not necessarily directly tied to energy but are the outcomes of how we utilize energy—such as the operation of machines and appliances, the heating systems we employ, and the vehicles we drive.
While some of these energy services exist today, they can be significantly improved or transformed by modern technologies, and they will continue to evolve with technological advancements. Moreover, new energy services may emerge as a result of changes in the technological, economic, institutional, and cultural landscapes. Ultimately, fostering a transition from the current energy system to a new one necessitates a greater focus on these services. This entails understanding their inevitable development and assessing their potential contribution to achieving a secure, affordable, and net-zero energy system.
In this report, we delve into the detailed exploration of 12 such energy services and model their impact within India's future energy system.
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