Recent attention on changes within the leadership of the US Federal Reserve has highlighted how vital institutional continuity is for global trade and financial conditions. Although market reactions have been muted so far, trust in monetary policy remains a cornerstone for international business confidence.
For companies operating across borders, stable exchange rates, predictable financing costs and consistent buyer behaviour are critical. These factors depend heavily on the credibility of monetary policy systems—particularly in the United States, where interest rate decisions continue to influence global capital movements and trade financing. Current market indicators suggest investors still believe US monetary policy will remain driven by economic fundamentals rather than external pressures. Inflation expectations are well anchored, long-term interest rates remain steady, and global economic growth is progressing at a moderate pace.
According to Atradius, global GDP is expected to grow by 2.8% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027, with US economic growth projected to remain close to 2.0% in both years. In this environment,
tradius does not foresee sudden shifts in Federal Reserve policy. “Present conditions point to policy stability in the near term, with no more than two additional 25-basis-point rate cuts likely in 2026,” says John Lorié, Chief Economist at Atradius.
That said, leadership changes can create pockets of uncertainty. A loss of confidence in monetary policy could have consequences beyond financial markets, spilling over into the broader economy. Increased risk perceptions may lead to higher borrowing costs, greater currency fluctuations and shifts in payment behaviour, all of which could disrupt trade and financing.
“At this stage, equity and bond investors do not expect significant political interference in Federal Reserve decision-making,” Lorié notes. “However, if expectations were to shift, higher inflation risk and uncertainty premiums could push borrowing costs upward.”
For the time being, global financial conditions remain stable. Businesses that proactively manage credit risk and funding exposure are best placed to withstand uncertainty and continue supporting international trade.
For companies operating across borders, stable exchange rates, predictable financing costs and consistent buyer behaviour are critical. These factors depend heavily on the credibility of monetary policy systems—particularly in the United States, where interest rate decisions continue to influence global capital movements and trade financing. Current market indicators suggest investors still believe US monetary policy will remain driven by economic fundamentals rather than external pressures. Inflation expectations are well anchored, long-term interest rates remain steady, and global economic growth is progressing at a moderate pace.
According to Atradius, global GDP is expected to grow by 2.8% in 2026 and 2.9% in 2027, with US economic growth projected to remain close to 2.0% in both years. In this environment,
tradius does not foresee sudden shifts in Federal Reserve policy. “Present conditions point to policy stability in the near term, with no more than two additional 25-basis-point rate cuts likely in 2026,” says John Lorié, Chief Economist at Atradius.
That said, leadership changes can create pockets of uncertainty. A loss of confidence in monetary policy could have consequences beyond financial markets, spilling over into the broader economy. Increased risk perceptions may lead to higher borrowing costs, greater currency fluctuations and shifts in payment behaviour, all of which could disrupt trade and financing.
“At this stage, equity and bond investors do not expect significant political interference in Federal Reserve decision-making,” Lorié notes. “However, if expectations were to shift, higher inflation risk and uncertainty premiums could push borrowing costs upward.”
For the time being, global financial conditions remain stable. Businesses that proactively manage credit risk and funding exposure are best placed to withstand uncertainty and continue supporting international trade.